Monday November 24 2008

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October Class 8 Sales Rise, New Orders Tumble

This story appears in the Nov. 24 print edition of Transport Topics.

U.S. Class 8 truck sales rose slightly in October, while the total number of vehicles sold over the first 10 months of 2008 still was 14.4 percent below 2007’s anemic levels, according to data from WardsAuto.com.

Analysts said they’re not seeing any early resurgence in sales. New truck orders for October, which give a better indication of future sales, “were in the pits,” said Ken Vieth, senior partner of A.C.T. Research, which tracks order data on commercial vehicles. “There were 10,600 new Class 8 orders in October in North America . . . and that figure was down 48 percent from orders in October of 2007,” Vieth told Transport Topics. October truck sales rose 2.6 percent above October 2007, the fifth consecutive monthly gain, Ward’s said Nov. 13, and, at 12,073 units climbed above 12,000 for the first time this year. The last time the industry sold more than 12,000 in a single month was in December 2007, when 12,034 units were sold.

October’s sales increase was the lowest in the five-month run of gains. Truck sales were up 9.5 percent in June, 10.8 percent in July, 9.2 percent in August, and 12.5 percent in September.

Truck producers have sold 110,128 Class 8s in the United States through the first 10 months of this year, compared with 128,622 in the same period last year, Ward’s said.

Transportation analysts said low trucking-company profits and high costs will keep sales depressed.

Chris Brady, president of Commercial Motor Vehicle Consulting, Manhasset, N.Y., said fleets would postpone replacing older trucks until profits improve.

“In the short-term, over the next few quarters, balance sheet consideration will outweigh rising maintenance expenses,” Brady told TT.

“The fourth quarter is where fleets start get into placing orders for the new year and we’re seeing very little of that,” ACT’s Vieth said. “The September financial panic has c

Change Continues in Washington; Henry Waxman to Chair House Energy and Commerce Committee

The Democratic Caucus voted 137-122 yesterday to elect Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) as Chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, replacing Rep. John Dingell (D-MI), the “Dean of the House” and the second longest serving Member of the US House of Representatives. Rep. Dingell has served as Chairman or Ranking Member of the Energy and Commerce Committee since 1981. Additionally, there are two Democrat and five Republican vacancies on the Committee as a result of the recent elections.1

One of the most important committees in Congress, the Energy and Commerce Committee has sweeping jurisdiction over issues pertaining to energy, environment, biomedical research, public health, Medicaid, Medicare (Parts A, D and Medicare Advantage), private health insurance programs, telecommunications, interstate and foreign communications, and tourism. Issues relating to the automobile industry also fall within the purview of the Committee.

Rep. Waxman chaired the Committee's Subcommittee on Health and the Environment from 1979 to 1994, and was Ranking Member of the Subcommittee from 1995-1996. Prior to assuming the chairmanship of the Energy and Commerce Committee, Rep. Waxman will relinquish his current post as Chairman of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee. As Chair of the Oversight Committee, Rep. Waxman held numerous investigative hearings and authored reports on the practices of the tobacco industry, pharmaceutical manufacturers, health insurers, telecommunications companies and the oil industry. He also used his leadership role to probe waste in government contracting. We expect that he will use his new chairmanship to continue many of the same oversight activities given the comparable jurisdiction.

Energy and the Environment

Rep. Waxman has taken a proactive stance on climate change, and has pushed for additional regulations on car emissions and the oil industry. Waxman introduced the Safe Climate Act of 2006. He was one of the primary aut

Auto Aftermarket Service Information Takes Major Step Forward with NASTF Standards

Research Triangle Park, NC - On Nov. 4 at AAPEX, the National Automotive Service Task Force (NASTF) announced a major milestone in its efforts to ensure that independent service professionals have the information needed to repair today’s vehicles: the establishment of its Service Information Standards.

Each auto manufacturer was asked to renew its commitment to NASTF to make service and training information and tools accessible to all repairers on an equal basis by signing an agreement with NASTF. To date, 12 automakers have signed agreements with NASTF and the remaining manufacturers have the agreement in various stages of review and approval.

The Standards are a significant accomplishment for NASTF – Charlie Gorman, the NASTF chairman, noted that it represents the realization of one of the organization’s major goals for the industry at large. It defines how NASTF will work in the future and it empowers the diverse NASTF membership to solve problems.

The agreement represents a great deal of hard work and dedication by the NASTF board, on which I serve, and its volunteer members from the OEMs and the aftermarket.

The NASTF Standards have three parts:

  • Definitions which clearly define what’s covered and what’s not covered
  • Automotive Service Information Standards which stipulate how OEMs will ensure open accessibility
  • Information Request and Resolution Process which provides checks and cross checks, including the possibility of binding arbitration if needed, to identify and assess any potential information gaps

Much of the Standards embody the practices that have been in place since NASTF was established, but adds one important new element: a binding arbitration backstop in the NASTF Dispute Resolution Process. This is an important step – it effectively addresses some concerns expressed in our industry about putting “teeth” in NASTF’s processes.

This is a major achievement for NASTF and a real step fo

NAFTA Freight Set Record in 2007

Goods valued at more than $909 billion crossed the U.S. border in trade with Canada and Mexico in 2007, 4.9 percent higher than the previous record set in 2006, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS).

Freight weighing nearly 606 million tons was transported through U.S. land borders, airports and seaports to and from locations in Canada and Mexico in 2007. U.S. merchandise trade with its North American Free Trade Agreement partners rose by more than $305 billion or by 50.6 percent between 2002 and 2007.

The value of freight shipments moving between the United States, Canada and Mexico grew at an average annual rate of nearly 8.5 percent per year between 2002 and 2007. The total value of U.S. freight shipments with Mexico grew 49.5 percent or 8.4 percent annually. Goods shipped in trade with Canada grew 51.2 percent or 8.6 percent annually.

Trucks carried 61 percent of this freight measured by value -- $555 billion in 2007. Rail carried 15 percent, followed by maritime with 7 percent, pipeline with 8 percent, and air with 4 percent. Trucks saw the largest modal increase in shipment value from 2006 to 2007 -- $21 billion -- followed by rail (up $9 billion) and pipeline (up $4 billion).

BTS, a part of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA), released the data Wednesday, Nov. 19, as part of its annual update of the North American Transportation Statistics (NATS) online database (OD). The update contains the most comparable transportation-related data available from the United States, Canada and Mexico in a one-stop online resource. The NATS database is co-sponsored by BTS and the U.S. Census Bureau, with the federal-level transportation and statistical agencies of Canada and Mexico.

The NATS-OD figures show, among other things, the role of the various modes of transportation in moving goods between Canada, Mexico and the United States, and presents

HDMA Names Participants in Heavy Duty Dialogue

The Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association has announced additional participants in Heavy Duty Dialogue 2009, for a total of 18 influential senior executives scheduled to discuss "The Commercial Vehicle Industry in Transition" Feb. 16 in Orlando, Fla.

Topics for the Heavy Duty Dialogue '09, held the day before Heavy Duty Aftermarket Week, include an industry forecast to define the near- and long-term future for the industry, U.S. energy policy, economic and environmental sustainability, a legislative and regulatory update, and a "developing storm" of a generationally diverse workforce. A major feature of the event is a panel discussion with the top industry CEO's and their opinions on megatrends.

Heavy Duty Dialogue '09 confirmed contributors include Howard Abramson, Publisher & Editor in Chief, Transport Topics; Kelly Dier, President, Marmon Highway Technologies Companies; Kenneth Gronbach, Principal, KCG Direct; Timothy Kraus, President & COO, HDMA; Dean Lockwood, Weapon Systems Analyst, Military Wheeled Vehicles, Forecast International; Louis Lavorata, Senior Vice President & CFO, Citation Corp.; Linda Longton, vice president, editorial, Randall Reilly Publishing; Eli Lustgarten, Partner, Longbow Consulting; Timothy Lynch, Vice President, American Trucking Associations; Stuart MacKay, President, MacKay & Co.; Robert McKenna, President & CEO, Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association; Joe McAleese, President & CEO, Bendix CVS; Charles "Chip" McClure, Chairman & CEO, ArvinMeritor; Jim Mele, Editor in Chief, Fleet Owner; Dennis Michels, President & CEO, Link Manufacturing; Peter Nesvold, Sr. vice president, Lazard Asset Management; David Sexton, President, Shell Oil Products U.S.; William Strauss, Vice President & Economist, U.S. Federal Reserve; Ann Wilson, Senior Vice President of Government Affairs, MEMA; and George Zirnhelt, President & CEO, Power Systems Research.

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Engine Manufacturers Will Be Ready for EPA 2010

The Engine Manufacturers Association (EMA) has said that its members are on schedule and ready to meet the EPA's stringent 2010 emission standards for heavy-duty engines in the US.

Engine manufacturers have invested heavily in engineering technological solutions and design changes to meet the new NOx emission standard that is required for 2010 model-year engines and see no technological barriers to meeting the standard.

"All engine and vehicle manufacturers will have product available to meet the applicable emissions standards when 2010 models are introduced," said Jed Mandel, EMA President.

"Engine manufacturers successfully brought compliant products to the market when the new emissions standards for PM and NOx were implemented in 2007, and our members are on track to meet the 2010 emissions standards as well. Fleet and truck owners can be confident that reliable, durable and fuel efficient vehicles meeting the 2010 emission standards will be available."

Addressing current economic conditions and implementation of the 2010 standards, Mr. Mandel continued: "Fleet owners and operators are experiencing very tough times due to the current national economic conditions, as are engine and vehicle manufacturers. We also recognize that customers have questions regarding new and unfamiliar technology that will be required for 2010 vehicles, and that those uncertainties have the potential to impact new vehicle sales over the next couple of years. On those issues, EMA continues to support efforts to provide financial incentives to customers and early adopters of the 2010 technology as a way to assist fleet owners and to ensure that the anticipated emissions reduction benefits from the new technology are realised."

Supplier Industry Testifies Before House Committee on Auto Loan Package

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Jim McElya, Executive Chairman of Cooper Standard Automotive and incoming MEMA chairman, testified Nov. 19 at the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee hearing, “Stabilizing the Financial Condition of the American Automobile Industry.” His written testimony called upon Congress to include suppliers in any auto industry financial assistance package.

“A potential bankruptcy by a major vehicle manufacturer will cause serious disruptions and will directly impact the ability of the entire industry to function,” McElya stated. “At the same time, suppliers must have an infusion of working capital to continue to operate.”

McElya’s testimony explained the highly interdependent relationship that exists between vehicle manufacturers and the supply base and highlighted the economic contributions of motor vehicle parts suppliers that spread deep into the economy, far beyond Michigan, and affect all 50 states. He also described the increasing role supplier companies’ play in the industry’s research and development, of even more importance as vehicle manufacturers strive to provide safer and more fuel efficient vehicles.

McElya cited the current circumstances facing the auto industry – including the lack of available credit and decline in vehicle sales – and the specific impact on the supplier industry, with some analysts stating that as much as half of the supply base is in distress. “The dramatic and sudden contraction of the auto industry will directly impact the supply base,” McElya said, “and the failure of the supply base will impact a wide range of car manufacturers.”

Trucking Outlook Negative Across the Board

Freight demand may not increase until 2010, truck and trailer orders are down and the economy doesn’t look to be rebounding anytime in the near future, according to FTR Associates’ North American Commercial Truck and Trailer Outlook Report.

“The freight environment can still be described as weak,” the report said. “With housing in a steep recession, the auto markets in a sharp downturn and consumers under severe stress, there are very few commodities where aggregate demand is holding up. Exports continue to support economic growth but much of this freight is not handled by truck.”

The report noted that many fleets have reported their freight demand has fallen substantially in the past six weeks, adding to concern that it will not rebound in the second half of 2009 as originally hoped but stay slow until 2010.

Orders remain weak, with trailers and medium-duty truck sales plummeting over the past several months and Class 8 demand declining, albeit at a smaller rate, FTR said, adding that there will be far less of a “pre-buy” ahead of EPA 2010 than there was in 2007.

“There is no doubt that the EPA mandate did change buying patterns in 2006-07, and will have an impact in 2009-2010, although we don’t see nearly the ‘pre-buy’ effect in 2009 as in 2006,” the report said. “The main reason is that the economy was strong in the 1H of 2006 and truckers were making money to modernize the fleet. Freight in 2009 will only start to accelerate mid-year. There won’t be time, freight volumes, or adequate trucker profits to support a big ‘pre-buy’ in 2009, although there may be a small one.”

Backlogs for all equipment remains at historically low levels, FTR said, keeping manufacturers from increasing production over the short term. Inventories for trailers and Class 8 vehicles are at “modest levels,” but medium-duty is overstocked, thereby prevent further building levels in 2009.

In addition, forecasts for Class 8 vehicles have fallen by 35,000 trucks

White House Pushes Through a Flurry of Rule Changes Sought by Business

WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration in the past week has adopted several hot-button regulatory changes long sought by business groups, drawing criticism from congressional Democrats.

The changes include new rules that open the way for commercial development of oil shale on federal land, allow truckers to drive for longer periods, and add certain restrictions on employee time off under the Family and Medical Leave Act.

Earlier this year, White House Chief of Staff Joshua Bolten set a Nov. 1 deadline for federal agencies to take final action on new regulations, allowing an exception for "extraordinary circumstances." In a memo dated May 9, Bolten called on agency heads to "resist the historical tendency of administrations to increase regulatory activity in their final months."

Some agencies haven't met Bolten's deadline, but are expected to adopt final rules before the end of President George W. Bush's term on Jan. 20. The Transportation Department, for example, has yet to complete vehicle fuel-economy standards. An agency spokesman, citing the cost and complexity of the rulemaking, said it "clearly meets the extraordinary circumstances test."

Some congressional Democrats, noting that other rulemaking is still under way at federal agencies, have accused the administration of seeking to make changes that would undermine environmental or public-health protections. On Wednesday, Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D., N.Y.), chairman of the Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights and Civil Liberties, introduced legislation that would require regulatory changes made within the last three months of an administration to be approved by the relevant incoming cabinet secretaries of the next administration.

White House spokesman Tony Fratto said the congressman's criticisms were ill founded. "There will be some exceptions [to the Nov. 1 deadline] and some judgment calls," Fratto said. "Some of those exceptions are because of events beyond our cont

Oshkosh Opens New Facility in Tianjin, China

Oshkosh Corporation (Oshkosh) (NYSE: OSK), a company that produces specialty trucks and truck bodies for defense, industrial and fire emergency, has opened a new manufacturing facility in Tianjin, China.

The plant is to produce JLG(R) access equipment specifically for the Asian market. This move is another step in Oshkosh’s strategic business initiatives to meet the demands of a global economy, and the growth potential of the China and Asian markets in particular.

According to Robert G. Bohn, Oshkosh’s chairman and chief executive officer, ‘Today’s groundbreaking is confirmation of our investment in the future, and a significant opportunity for our customers, as well as the company. This facility will be the first ever China-based manufacturing facility for Oshkosh Corporation.’

Volvo, Mack Launch Diesel Particulate Filter Reman Program

Volvo Trucks North America and Mack Trucks announced Tuesday, Nov. 18, the launch of a large-scale program to remanufacture diesel particulate filters (DPF). The program will operate out of the Middletown Remanufacturing Center (MRC) in Middletown, Pa.

The truck makers say the program enables customers to simply exchange the used ceramic filter element from their DPF for a clean one when service is required, reducing service time and simplifying emissions control systems maintenance. Customers also are assured of receiving a warranted clean filter, while at the same time avoiding the need to invest in expensive filter cleaning systems, according to the companies.

The companies say the DPFs are remanufactured to more than 90 percent of original capacity: The process begins by blowing air across the filters and removing contaminants via a powerful vacuum; filter elements with a high level of oil or particulate buildup are baked in state-of-the-art industrial ovens to further reduce accumulated material prior to the vacuum process.

According to Bob MacPherson, MRC's manager of lean systems and new engine projects, a key advantage of the program is the ability to remanufacture in bulk, instead of servicing one filter at a time. "A DPF filter element is reusable," MacPherson says. "When it's no longer doing its job optimally, the component is sent to us, and we return it to useful service. It's a great deal for customers."

It's also a great deal for the environment, according to the truck makers. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's 2007 emissions regulations required a dramatic reduction of particulate matter emissions by heavy-duty trucks. Trucks sold in 2007 with EPA '07 engines now are approaching the mileage at which filters require routine service; if the filters are not remanufactured, the accumulation over time of ash and other material leads to decreased engine performance, the companies say.

The DPF cleaning p

Fuel Economy, Safety: New Technologies Changing the Face of the Trucking Industry

No longer an option on commercial vehicles, cruise control systems have become a standard capability of electronic engines. These programmable systems boost fuel efficiency by ensuring that a carefully chosen road speed is maintained. It’s a well-known fact that for every mile per hour over 55, fuel economy is reduced by 0.1 MPG.

Cruise control also provides a safety benefit for fleets, drivers and the motoring public. Using cruise to slow down makes driving easier, and by smoothing the ride, especially over rolling terrain, driver fatigue is reduced.

Now available for heavy-duty vehicles is a relatively new adaptation of cruise control and one that provides even greater safety value. Known collectively as “adaptive cruise control,” these more advanced systems work in conjunction with conventional cruise control and forward-looking radar to detect speed and distance of vehicles ahead and automatically adjust your vehicle’s speed to maintain a safe following distance.

SmartCruise

An exclusive feature of Eaton Corp.’s VORAD collision warning systems, SmartCruise collects data from the collision warning system to assist drivers with maintaining safe following distances. To help prevent collisions, the system automatically adjusts vehicle speed, based on pre-determined parameters, by defueling the engine and engaging the engine retarder. When partnered with an Eaton automated transmission, SmartCruise automatically downshifts to maintain a safe following distance.

Eaton’s latest generation VORAD VS-400 with 77-GHz radar is a forward-looking object detection system that helps drivers identify objects up to 500 ft. ahead and provides in-cab audio and visual alerts. The collision warning system detects both slow-moving and stationary objects that may present a danger, regardless of weather conditions.

Active braking

Introduced earlier this year by Meritor WABCO Vehicle Control Systems, OnGuard uses forward-looking radar sensor tec

General Dynamics to Acquire AxleTech International

General Dynamics and the private equity firm The Carlyle Group have entered into an agreement for General Dynamics to acquire AxleTech International, a manufacturer and supplier of axles, axle components, planetary axles, independent suspensions, brakes and aftermarket parts for military vehicles, commercial trucks, and off-highway vehicles.

AxleTech International employs about 1,000 people worldwide, is based in Troy, Michigan, and has manufacturing facilities in Oshkosh, Wisconsin; Detroit, Michigan; Chicago, Illinois; St. Etienne, France; and Osasco, Brazil.

The proposed acquisition, which has been approved by both companies, would be immediately accretive to General Dynamics' earnings. The transaction is subject to normal regulatory approvals and is expected to be completed by the end of 2008, when AxleTech International will become part of General Dynamics' Armament and Technical Products business.

Automotive Suppliers Take Steps to Conserve Cash

Parts Makers Shift to Shorter Workweeks, Crack Down on Credit to Prepare for the Potential Loss of Their Big Customers.

U.S. auto suppliers are scrambling to extend their holiday-season shutdowns, shedding workers and developing contingency plans to deal with a potentially devastating failure of some of their biggest customers in Detroit.

The moves come as General Motors Corp. on Friday announced more production curbs and lawmakers in Washington began hashing out conditions that the Big Three auto makers -- GM, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC -- will have to meet before Congress will consider giving them a $25 billion emergency cash infusion. Many suppliers are counting on a federal bailout to rescue their big customers -- and, by extension, themselves.

In the meantime, suppliers, still unsure of what will happen to the nation's car makers, are conserving cash by shifting to shorter workweeks, canceling capital-spending plans and accelerating layoffs. Problems in the supply network have the potential to spread pain to a wide swath of the U.S. economy. Auto suppliers employ more than 730,000 workers in the U.S., about three times more than the Big Three.

Nescor Plastics Corp. in Mesopotamia, Ohio, which makes plastic parts such as cup holders, in the past month has shifted to a four-day workweek, implemented an across-the-board salary reduction and canceled costly machine upgrades planned for the company's normal two-week holiday shutdown. The company also has added a week both before and after its two-week shutdown in which it will operate at only partial strength.

Like many auto suppliers, Nescor doesn't sell directly to the car makers. Rather, its plastic parts are sold to larger suppliers that assemble modules that get fitted onto cars on the assembly line.

"Over the past 12 months, we had three customers file Chapter 11 on us, so we know what it means when you suddenly aren't getting receivables you're coun

Navistar Picked to Supply Tactical Vehicles for UK Military

Navistar International Corp.'s defense group said British authorities have chosen the company's MXT vehicle to replace a portion of its fleet of tactical vehicles.

The United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense said it intends to spend about $425 million on 400 tactical wheeled vehicles. It named Navistar as one of three suppliers of the vehicles, which are to come in heavy, medium and light models.

Navistar said it expects to be the builder of the medium-weight version and expects to provide 260 vehicles. Delivery will likely begin in the first half of 2009, the Warrenville-based truck and engine-maker said.

The company didn't provide a value on the expected contract. The MXT is designed for assignments such as military border patrols and reconnaissance missions.

Global Truck Industry: Third Quarter Results Raise Concerns

But what of the two US-based truck OEMs? Paccar reported net income of US$299m or US$0.82 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2008, compared to US$302.3m (US$0.81) in the same quarter of 2007. Back in August 2008, Paccar began to cut both staff and output at its Kenworth plant in Melbourne, Australia. According to Belgian trade union ABVV, some 750 staff will lose their jobs at Paccar facilities within Belgium, whilst an as-yet unannounced number of staff are due to be laid off at Eindhoven, the Netherlands. In the UK, the night shift will be ended at the DAF plant at Leyland, and the company is now negotiating a further 250 redundancies likely to take effect from February 2009. In the US, where Paccar has already cut capacity quite markedly, the Kenworth plant at Renton, Washington, will lay off 430 employees from 16 January 2009. Just 66 hourly-paid workers will remain, and production of all on-highway trucks will be ended, according to local press reports.

The facility will produce just two off-highway trucks per day, down from an output of 18 units per day this time last year.

Three months ago, at Paccar's Q2 conference call, CEO Mark Pigott was asked about lead times, and said: "We're increasing the build rate; there are certainly a lot of benefits to having a backlog of one year but in terms of satisfying immediate customer demands that sometimes is a bit of a challenge. But right now it looks pretty good." Thirteen weeks on, and it appears a very different picture: "I think we are looking at four to eight weeks of build, which we typically look for around the world and then some people will have orders slated in the first and second quarter," said Pigott in response to an analyst's question.

Navistar's recent past has been characterized by a lot of uncertainties with regards to its accounts. At its Q3 conference, it revised full-year guidance up after posting record net income for the third quarter of US$272m, or US$3.68 per sh

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